Various analogs for winter 2022-2023.

SST Analogs

I don’t put much weight into these analogs, but they are still considered.

Weak / Moderate La Niña Events

Weak vs Moderate vs Strong La Niña Events

This winter… likely weakening Weak La Niña to neutral or possibly Moderate La Niña to neutral. Strong La Niña composite not a good analog.

Top row uses 1981-2010 climate average. Bottom row uses 1991-2020 climate average. Analogs indicate that the northeast could see slightly colder-than-average temperatures compared to the 1991-2020 baseline.

500 mb Geopotential Height Composite Anomaly

Left: The last 20 ENSO-cool, weak La Niña, moderate La Niña, and strong La Niña events.

Right: Only weak La Niña events.

NMME Probabilistic Forecasts

Left: Temperature Anomaly Probabilities

Right: Precipitation Anomaly Probabilities

CFSv2 Forecasts

Left: Temperature Anomalies (K)

Right: Precipitation Anomalies (mm/day)

Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Outlook

DJF 2022-23 temperature and precipitation anomalies for the CONUS.